{"v":2,"zip":"80517","built":"2026-10-25T11:33:03.795Z","spec_build":"20261025T1115-00c6","place":"Estes Park, Larimer County, CO","state":"CO","county":{"name":"Larimer","st":"co","fips":"08069"},"page":"/fort-collins/zip/80517","links":{"story":"/story/fort-collins/zip/80517","page":"/fort-collins/zip/80517"},"rule":{"pi_share":0.28,"down":0.2,"term_months":360},"rate":{"rate":7.32,"date":"2026-10-22","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US"},"headline":[{"id":"likely","label":"Homes likely to sell in the next 12 months","value":"about 268","raw":268,"as_of":"2026-10-25","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index (held-out backtest) · county records"},{"id":"gap","label":"A median-income household is short of the median home on county records","value":"$282,000 short","raw":282063,"as_of":"2026-10-22","source":"County assessor · Census ACS · Freddie Mac PMMS 7.32%"},{"id":"years","label":"Median years since the last sale","value":"10.6 years","raw":10.6,"as_of":"2026-10-25","source":"County recorder deeds"}],"chapters":[{"id":"family","n":1,"title":"The household","short":"Household","q":"Can a household here afford a home here?","built":true},{"id":"house","n":2,"title":"The house","short":"House","q":"What is a home here, and what is it worth?","built":true},{"id":"street","n":3,"title":"The street","short":"Street","q":"Who is staying, and who is likely to go?","built":true},{"id":"town","n":4,"title":"The town","short":"Town","q":"Is the market filling up or draining?","built":true},{"id":"sky","n":5,"title":"The sky","short":"Sky","q":"What is the weather like for a home here?","built":true}],"coverage":{"house_parcels":6994,"clean_parcels":6994,"acs_occupied":4857,"ratio":1.44,"covered":true,"date_cov":97.4,"value_basis":"County assessor"},"ch1":{"value":662750,"income":89659,"rate":7.32,"budget_pi":2092,"reach":380687,"gap":282063,"reaches":false,"pi":3642,"pi_share_pct":48.7,"tax_mo":276,"ins_mo":null,"piti":null,"piti_share_pct":null,"tax_rate":0.005,"ins_year":null,"close":"A typical 80517 household is about $282,000 short of the median home on county records at today's 7.32% rate.","home_label":"Median home"},"ch2":{"parcels":6994,"sqft":1488,"beds":3,"year_built":1985,"value":662750,"sale_median":650000,"ti_bands":{"run_date":"2026-10-25","scored":7153,"bands":[["0–10",3359],["11–20",2504],["21–30",1115],["31–40",175],["41–50",0],["51+",0]]},"close":"The median home on county records here is a 3-bedroom, 1,488 sq ft home built around 1985; the county values it at about $663,000."},"ch3":{"owner_pct":79.2,"absentee_pct":62.8,"out_of_state_pct":26.8,"suppressed":2078,"likely":268,"likely_pct":3.831855876465542,"years":10.6,"ti_live":true,"ti_capture":27.7,"tenure":{"counts":[["0–5 years",1748],["5–10 years",1584],["10–20 years",1683],["20+ years",1950]],"as_of":"2026-10-25"},"equity":null,"close":"About 268 of 80517's 6,994 homes are likely to sell in the next 12 months; the typical owner bought 10.6 years ago."},"ch4":{"mos":7.85,"band":[4,6],"level":0.98125,"band_level":[0.5,0.75],"new_mo":38.7,"sold_mo":24.3,"drain":0.543,"below_band":false,"above_band":true,"for_sale":191,"history":[{"month":"2024-10","new_mo":40,"sold_mo":27,"for_sale":162,"mos":6},{"month":"2024-11","new_mo":31,"sold_mo":24,"for_sale":149,"mos":6.21},{"month":"2024-12","new_mo":26,"sold_mo":23.3,"for_sale":128,"mos":5.49},{"month":"2025-01","new_mo":23.3,"sold_mo":23,"for_sale":133,"mos":5.78},{"month":"2025-02","new_mo":24.3,"sold_mo":22.7,"for_sale":127,"mos":5.59},{"month":"2025-03","new_mo":35.7,"sold_mo":18.7,"for_sale":144,"mos":7.7},{"month":"2025-04","new_mo":40,"sold_mo":21,"for_sale":158,"mos":7.52},{"month":"2025-05","new_mo":52.7,"sold_mo":23.3,"for_sale":184,"mos":7.9},{"month":"2025-06","new_mo":49,"sold_mo":26.7,"for_sale":189,"mos":7.08},{"month":"2025-07","new_mo":46.7,"sold_mo":27.7,"for_sale":184,"mos":6.64},{"month":"2025-08","new_mo":38.3,"sold_mo":25.7,"for_sale":186,"mos":7.24},{"month":"2025-09","new_mo":36.3,"sold_mo":29.3,"for_sale":170,"mos":5.8},{"month":"2025-10","new_mo":32.3,"sold_mo":32,"for_sale":143,"mos":4.47},{"month":"2025-11","new_mo":25.3,"sold_mo":31.3,"for_sale":137,"mos":4.38},{"month":"2025-12","new_mo":17.7,"sold_mo":27,"for_sale":101,"mos":3.74},{"month":"2026-01","new_mo":17.3,"sold_mo":20,"for_sale":99,"mos":4.95},{"month":"2026-02","new_mo":19.3,"sold_mo":16.7,"for_sale":104,"mos":6.23},{"month":"2026-03","new_mo":31.7,"sold_mo":15.7,"for_sale":121,"mos":7.71},{"month":"2026-04","new_mo":41,"sold_mo":19,"for_sale":143,"mos":7.53},{"month":"2026-05","new_mo":48,"sold_mo":25.7,"for_sale":158,"mos":6.15},{"month":"2026-06","new_mo":48.7,"sold_mo":31,"for_sale":169,"mos":5.45},{"month":"2026-07","new_mo":46.7,"sold_mo":31,"for_sale":182,"mos":5.87},{"month":"2026-08","new_mo":44,"sold_mo":27.3,"for_sale":187,"mos":6.85},{"month":"2026-09","new_mo":38.7,"sold_mo":24.3,"for_sale":191,"mos":7.85}],"overflow":false,"unemp":4.4,"permits":2436,"mig_in":6096,"mig_out":6429,"population":10093,"approval_pct":88.4,"close":"80517 holds 7.8 months of homes — above the 4–6 month balanced band. Buyers have room."},"ch5":{"status":"facts","hazards":{"hail_days":0.4,"wind_days":0,"flood":1.4,"tropical":0,"winter":8.3,"heat_days":0.3},"close":"In a typical year the sky over 80517 brings 0.4 hail days, 1.4 flood events, 8.3 winter storms, 0 days at 90°F or more (NOAA). One score for all of it is pending until its backtest runs."},"cards":[{"id":"value","chapter":"family","label":"Median home on county records (county assessor value)","raw":662750,"value":"$662,750","source":"County assessor, median value of this ZIP's homes","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"income","chapter":"family","label":"Median household income","raw":89659,"value":"$89,659","source":"Census ACS 2023 5-year, B19013","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"rate","chapter":"family","label":"30-year fixed rate","raw":7.32,"value":"7.32%","source":"Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED MORTGAGE30US, week of 2026-10-22","geo":"national","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"reach","chapter":"family","label":"What 28% of the median income buys (P&I, 20% down, 30-yr)","raw":380687,"value":"$381,000","source":"Lotvox-derived from the three cards above","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"gap","chapter":"family","label":"Short of the median home on county records","raw":282063,"value":"$282,000","source":"Lotvox-derived","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"pi","chapter":"family","label":"Principal + interest on the median home on county records","raw":3642,"value":"$3,642/mo","source":"Lotvox-derived (20% down, 30-yr)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"pi_share","chapter":"family","label":"P&I as a share of median income","raw":48.7,"value":"48.7%","source":"Lotvox-derived","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"tax","chapter":"family","label":"Property tax estimate","raw":276,"value":"$276/mo","source":"Census ACS 2023 county effective rate 0.50% × the median home on county records","geo":"Larimer County (county figure)","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"ins","chapter":"family","label":"Homeowners insurance estimate","raw":null,"value":"pending","source":"NAIC 2023 average HO-3 premium is a state average, not local (ruling B: stays pending)","geo":"CO (state average)","as_of":"pending"},{"id":"piti","chapter":"family","label":"Payment with property tax","raw":3918,"value":"$3,918/mo","source":"Lotvox-derived (P&I + tax; insurance pending)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"house_value","chapter":"house","label":"County assessor median value","raw":662750,"value":"$662,750","source":"County assessor (actual value)","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"sale_median","chapter":"house","label":"Median recorded sale, last 12 months","raw":650000,"value":"$650,000","source":"County recorder, 307 sales over $50,000","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-14"},{"id":"parcels","chapter":"house","label":"Homes on county records","raw":6994,"value":"6,994","source":"County assessor parcels (houses, condos, townhomes)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"sqft","chapter":"house","label":"Median size","raw":1488,"value":"1,488 sq ft","source":"County assessor (95.5% of homes report size)","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"beds","chapter":"house","label":"Median bedrooms","raw":3,"value":"3","source":"County assessor (94.4% of homes report bedrooms)","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"year_built","chapter":"house","label":"Median year built","raw":1985,"value":"1985","source":"County assessor","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"pi_house","chapter":"house","label":"Monthly principal + interest on it","raw":3642,"value":"$3,642/mo","source":"Lotvox-derived (20% down, 30-yr, today's rate)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-22"},{"id":"ti_scored","chapter":"house","label":"Homes the Turnover Index scored (spread by score band below)","raw":7153,"value":"7,153","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index scoring run (a ranking, not a probability)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"tenure_20","chapter":"street","label":"Homes held 20 years or more","raw":1950,"value":"1,950","source":"County assessor and recorder public records (the ZIP story's tenure mix)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"equity","chapter":"street","label":"Equity bands (how much of their home owners own)","raw":null,"value":"pending","source":"County recorder mortgage records are not loaded yet","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"pending"},{"id":"owner_occ","chapter":"street","label":"Homes lived in by their owner","raw":79.2,"value":"79.2%","source":"Census ACS 2023 5-year, B25003","geo":"ZIP 80517 (all occupied homes)","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"absentee","chapter":"street","label":"Owner's mailing address is elsewhere","raw":62.8,"value":"62.8%","source":"County assessor owner mailing vs. home address (98.3% known)","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"out_of_state","chapter":"street","label":"Owner's mailing address is out of state","raw":26.8,"value":"26.8%","source":"County assessor owner mailing state (99.1% known)","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"suppressed","chapter":"street","label":"Held by companies, trusts and estates (never drawn one by one)","raw":2078,"value":"2,078","source":"County assessor owner of record","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"likely","chapter":"street","label":"Homes likely to sell in the next 12 months","raw":268,"value":"about 268","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index: houses × the sale rate in its held-out backtest","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"ti_capture","chapter":"street","label":"Turnover Index held-out test: share of sales it had in its top fifth (random is 20%)","raw":27.7,"value":"27.7%","source":"Lotvox Turnover Index backtest on 184 recorded sales","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-08-30"},{"id":"years_owned","chapter":"street","label":"Median years since the last recorded sale","raw":10.6,"value":"10.6 years","source":"County recorder deeds (97.4% of homes dated)","geo":"ZIP 80517, 6,994 homes on county records","as_of":"2026-10-25"},{"id":"mos","chapter":"town","label":"Months of supply","raw":7.85,"value":"7.8 months","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset), 3-month rolling","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"new_mo","chapter":"town","label":"New listings in, per month","raw":38.7,"value":"≈ 39/mo","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"sold_mo","chapter":"town","label":"Homes sold, per month","raw":24.3,"value":"≈ 24/mo","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"for_sale","chapter":"town","label":"Homes for sale","raw":191,"value":"191","source":"Redfin Data Center (public research dataset)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-09-30"},{"id":"unemp","chapter":"town","label":"Unemployment rate","raw":4.4,"value":"4.4% (preliminary)","source":"BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics","geo":"Larimer County (county figure)","as_of":"2026-08"},{"id":"permits","chapter":"town","label":"New homes permitted","raw":2436,"value":"2,436","source":"Census Building Permits Survey","geo":"Larimer County (county figure)","as_of":"2025"},{"id":"mig_in","chapter":"town","label":"Households moving in (top 10 origin counties)","raw":6096,"value":"6,096","source":"IRS SOI county-to-county migration","geo":"Larimer County (county figure)","as_of":"2022–2023"},{"id":"mig_out","chapter":"town","label":"Households moving out (top 10 destination counties)","raw":6429,"value":"6,429","source":"IRS SOI county-to-county migration","geo":"Larimer County (county figure)","as_of":"2022–2023"},{"id":"pop","chapter":"town","label":"Population","raw":10093,"value":"10,093","source":"Census ACS 2023 5-year, B01001","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2023"},{"id":"credit","chapter":"town","label":"Mortgage approval rate, home purchase (approximate)","raw":88.4,"value":"88.4%","source":"CFPB/FFIEC HMDA 2024 public data, tracts overlapping 80517","geo":"tracts overlapping 80517 (approximate)","as_of":"2024"},{"id":"sky_hail_days","chapter":"sky","label":"Hail days a year (1 inch or larger, within 15 miles)","raw":0.4,"value":"0.4","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, hail 1 in or larger within 15 mi","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_wind_days","chapter":"sky","label":"Damaging thunderstorm-wind days a year (50 knots or more, within 15 miles)","raw":0,"value":"0.0","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, thunderstorm wind 50 kt or more within 15 mi","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_flood","chapter":"sky","label":"Flood events a year (within 15 miles and the forecast zone)","raw":1.4,"value":"1.4","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, flood events within 15 mi plus NWS zone COZ035","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_tropical","chapter":"sky","label":"Tropical storm events a year (forecast zone)","raw":0,"value":"0.0","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, NWS zone COZ035","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_winter","chapter":"sky","label":"Winter storm events a year (forecast zone)","raw":8.3,"value":"8.3","source":"NOAA NCEI Storm Events 2016-2025, NWS zone COZ035","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_heat_days","chapter":"sky","label":"Days at 90°F or hotter in a normal year","raw":0.3,"value":"0","source":"NOAA NCEI Climate Normals 1991-2020, median of the 3 nearest stations","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"2026-10-15"},{"id":"sky_score","chapter":"sky","label":"Sky burden score (all hazards ranked against every US ZIP)","raw":null,"value":"pending","source":"Pending: needs national hazard ranks and an outcome backtest that has not run (approved rule, Brad 2026-10-15)","geo":"ZIP 80517","as_of":"pending"}]}