Hillsborough County, FL · 8,620 properties with county records
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Tampa 33609 is in Hillsborough County, FL, part of the Tampa Bay Metro. The typical home value in Tampa 33609 is $612,527 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.6% from a year earlier. Homes that sold went under contract in a median 88 days, and 31% of listings took a price cut (Redfin Data Center, period ending Sep 30, 2026). On Lotvox's market-leverage reading of that data, with 4.9 months of supply, sellers hold a slight edge. The Lotvox Turnover Index is not published for 33609 yet: it appears only where a held-out test on the county's recorded sales beats chance. Across Hillsborough County's 50 ZIPs with a Zillow value, the middle one is $385,142, so 33609 sits 59% above the county middle. Typical rent is $2,416 a month (Zillow Observed Rent Index, September 2026). Lotvox holds county assessor records for 8,620 properties in 33609.
Headline value data through September 2026. Each source below carries its own date.
Is 33609 a buyer's or seller's market?
By Lotvox's leverage reading of Redfin data through Sep 30, 2026, 33609 is a seller's market, narrowly. Homes went under contract in a median 88 days with 4.9 months of supply.
What do homes in 33609 sell for?
The typical home value in 33609 is $612,527 (Zillow Home Value Index, September 2026), down 0.6% in a year. County records put the median at about $251 per square foot (computed Apr 21, 2026).
Who is likely to sell in 33609?
Lotvox only publishes its Turnover Index where a held-out test on recorded sales beats chance, and 33609 has not passed that test yet. When it does, the score appears here.
How does 33609 compare to Hillsborough County?
33609's typical value of $612,527 compares with a middle value of $385,142 across Hillsborough County's 50 ZIPs. Both are Zillow Home Value Index figures for September 2026.
Where does this 33609 data come from?
Values and rents come from Zillow's research data, sales pace from the Redfin Data Center, and property counts and turnover from county assessor and deed records. Each number on this page carries its own date, and the method is published at lotvox.com/methodology.
Rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Ownership cost: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), 20% down, 30-year loan at the current mortgage rate, plus 1.2% of the price a year.
Rent to price — the investor's question first
21.1×
price to annual rent
Lower is friendlier to a buy-to-let case. This is a ratio of published medians, not a yield on any particular property.
Price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Annual rent: 12 months of Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI).
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / seller
buyer-timing lens
Seller's Market
Needs 21.9% correction for affordability
DOM: 58d (falling) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)10
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)75
Cancellation Rate (10%)25
Days on Market (5%)60
Seller-favored market in 33609. Expect to pay at or near list price. Payment burden: 35.8% of median income. Median days on market: 58. Renting is approximately 80% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 21.6).
Buyer Caution
Seller's market. Be prepared to pay near list price.
Competitive market similar to 2021-2022 — limited inventory driving prices above fundamentals.
COOLINGSELLER SLIGHT
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Sellers hold a slight edge.
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Median price: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). Median rent: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). Days on market and active listings: Redfin Data Center, rolling 90 days.
Valuation
3 lenses, different anchors
vs assessor
-55.9%
Market vs assessed value — a tax-roll lag, not a deal signal.
Avg assessor$270,150
county CAMA · properties_v
vs income
—
Fair-value model not available for this market.
fair_value_scores · 10-state coverage
vs county comps
+73.9%
County-wide market — the widest, slowest signal.
Hillsborough+73.9%
Lotvox comps · mv_valuation_gap
Read together: Above county comps but sustainable on local incomes.
Housing pulse — Housing pulse could not be loaded (429).
Price bands
mix-shift
Price Bands — the median behind the median
A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Hillsborough.
Aggregate median -2.7% YoY in Tampa, FL (metro), but the under-$500k tier is -2.1% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 71.6% to 72.2% (+0.7pp) and the $1M+ share from 6.6% to 6.2% (-0.4pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$190k
$252
24
6.5%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$385k
$307
67
18.1%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$610k
$355
94
25.3%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$850k
$357
61
16.4%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.15M
$375
46
12.4%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.74M
$463
24
6.5%
ZIP
$2M+
$2.85M
$591
55
14.8%
ZIP
All sales (the headline median)
$750k
$357
371
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at metro level (Tampa, FL), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 33609.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
ZIP 33609→Hillsborough County, FL
12-Month Direction
-9Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
37· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden
38.4%
severe
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS (FRED MORTGAGE30US) 7.32% · Zillow ZHVI · Census income · Updated 2026-10-22
Price-to-rent
21.1x
favors renting
Source: Zillow ZHVI ÷ (Zillow ZORI × 12)
Valuation6
+73.9%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand
4.9 mo
balanced
Source: Redfin Data Center (ZIP): inventory ÷ monthly homes sold · Updated 2026-09-30
Insurance Risk
48/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.6%
FL 4.5%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0857d ago
Poverty Rate
13.2%
FL 12.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$75,011
FL $72,373US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
101.2
FL 101.2US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$379,631
County data: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA
