Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 5.7% correction for affordability
DOM: 91d (rising) · Market Dynamics rolling median · hourly
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)50
Valuation Gap (25%)40
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Buy vs Rent (15%)50
Cancellation Rate (10%)25
Days on Market (5%)100
Balanced market in 33558. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 31.1% of median income. Median days on market: 91. Renting is approximately 64% cheaper than buying (price-to-rent ratio: 19.7).
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
COOLINGBALANCED
Market is cooling with expanding inventory. Conditions are balanced between buyers and sellers. Prices down 1.5% YoY.
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A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Hillsborough.
Aggregate median -2.7% YoY in Tampa, FL (metro), but the under-$500k tier is -2.1% — the aggregate and the entry tier are moving together. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 71.6% to 72.2% (+0.7pp) and the $1M+ share from 6.6% to 6.2% (-0.4pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
2 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$166k
$195
43
11.1%
ZIP
$250k–$500k
$390k
$203
113
29.1%
ZIP
$500k–$750k
$598k
$224
148
38.1%
ZIP
$750k–$1M
$829k
$251
60
15.5%
ZIP
$1M–$1.5M
$1.26M
$296
15
3.9%
ZIP
$1.5M–$2M
$1.70M
$425
284
—
COUNTY · Hillsborough, FL
$2M+
$2.92M
$528
519
—
COUNTY · Hillsborough, FL
All sales (the headline median)
$550k
$221
388
100%
ZIP
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at metro level (Tampa, FL), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the South census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 33558.
United States
South
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Hillsborough County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
This ZIP code crosses county lines. Property data shows Hillsborough (63.5%) and Pasco (36.5%). County metrics below are shown separately for each county.
Hillsborough (63.5%)
Pasco (36.5%)
ZIP 33558→2 counties
12-Month Direction
-9Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
37· Weak
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.
Payment Burden48
31.2%
stretched
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Buy vs Rent44
1.347x
rent advantage
Source: Lotvox · Updated 2026-05-15
Valuation6
+73.9%
overvalued
Source: Lotvox comps · Updated 2026-05-15
Supply/Demand11
3.1 mo
balanced
Source: Lotvox MLS · Updated 2026-05-15
Insurance Risk
48/100
moderate
Source: FEMA/NFIP · Updated 2026-04
County distress indicators
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Economic indicators are mixed relative to comparable U.S. counties.
Unemployment Rate
4.5%
FL 4.5%US 4.4%
Near national averages
Source: BLS LAUS · 2026-0667d ago
Poverty Rate
13.2%
FL 12.4%US 12.6%
Near national averages
Median Household Income
$75,011
FL $72,373US $82,006
Higher than most U.S. counties
Cost of Living (RPP)
101.2
FL 101.2US 100.3
Near national averages
Home Value (ZHVI)$379,631
County data: BLS, Census ACS, CDC, FBI UCR, Federal Reserve, USDA · Coverage derived from property records · Counties with <2% coverage excluded as likely data errors
