Lotvox market story · compare

ZIP 33851 vs ZIP 33850

ZIP 33851

Polk County, FL

ZIP 33850

Polk County, FL

1 of 4

Who's going to sell

Turnover Index not published for 33851 yet.

Where

33851 in Polk County, FL

33801 · $233,30233803 · $287,34533805 · $231,78133809 · $311,24133810 · $316,17133811 · $333,43433812 · $373,32333813 · $369,66133815 · $183,13533823 · $303,09533827 · $300,52633830 · $277,03233835 · no value published33837 · $333,57233838 · $264,58233839 · $284,18033840 · $191,46833841 · $228,13833843 · $214,70733844 · $292,63633847 · no value published33849 · $395,15033850 · $306,52133851 · $308,50033853 · $220,30633854 · $89,07433855 · $292,98233856 · no value published33858 · no value published33859 · $271,84333860 · $285,30033867 · no value published33868 · $261,04833877 · no value published33880 · $251,61033881 · $262,52033884 · $295,51733897 · $341,89333898 · $249,88934759 · $276,046 33851
$89K$395K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

33851 is one of 40 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Polk County, FL.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 9 of the 34 with a value.

Value rank in county
9 of 34

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Turnover Index not published for 33850 yet.

Where

33850 in Polk County, FL

33801 · $233,30233803 · $287,34533805 · $231,78133809 · $311,24133810 · $316,17133811 · $333,43433812 · $373,32333813 · $369,66133815 · $183,13533823 · $303,09533827 · $300,52633830 · $277,03233835 · no value published33837 · $333,57233838 · $264,58233839 · $284,18033840 · $191,46833841 · $228,13833843 · $214,70733844 · $292,63633847 · no value published33849 · $395,15033850 · $306,52133851 · $308,50033853 · $220,30633854 · $89,07433855 · $292,98233856 · no value published33858 · no value published33859 · $271,84333860 · $285,30033867 · no value published33868 · $261,04833877 · no value published33880 · $251,61033881 · $262,52033884 · $295,51733897 · $341,89333898 · $249,88934759 · $276,046 33850
$89K$395K typical home value
Source: Census TIGER/Line · Zillow (ZHVI)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

33850 is one of 40 ZIP codes that lie mostly in Polk County, FL.

Shaded by typical home value, it ranks 10 of the 34 with a value.

Value rank in county
10 of 34

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, TIGER/Line boundaries; Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research

Local life

Schools in 33850

5 school locations in 33850: 1 elementary, 2 middle, 2 high.

In alphabetical order: DISCOVERY ACADEMY OF LAKE ALFRED, DISCOVERY HIGH SCHOOL, KAREN M. SIEGEL ACADEMY, LAKE ALFRED ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, and more on the ZIP page. Locations only — no ratings are shown here.

School locations
5

Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (school locations)

2 of 4

What it costs

Home values

What homes are worth in 33851

$0$100K$200K$300K$400K200020052010201520202025Peak April 2024 · $327,747Latest · $308,500
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 33851 was worth $79,362.

Values peaked at $327,747 in April 2024. The latest reading is −5.9% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $308,500, −1.8% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$308,500
12-month change
−1.8%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$308,500
Loan at 20% down
$246,800
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$1,709
Median household income, per month
$6,463
Share of income
26.4%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 6.8% → 26.4%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $308,500. Put 20% down and borrow $246,800 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $1,709 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $77,557 a year, $6,463 a month. So the payment takes 26.4% of income — rated “affordable” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 6.8% in 2000.

Payment share of income
26.4%
Monthly P&I
$1,709

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$500$1K$2K$2K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $7416.67% rate · $1,587
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $475.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $741.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $1,587 — +114% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +35%.

Payment change since 2020
+114%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$100K$200K$300K$400K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +289% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $156,629. So the real change is +97%, not +289%.

Real change since 2000
+97%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

33851 against its neighbors

0100200300400500200020052010201520202025
33851 (2000 = 100)Polk County (2000 = 100)Florida (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

33851: +289% since January 2000.

Polk County: +222% since January 2000.

Florida: +245% since January 2000 — 33851 ran ahead of it by 44 points.

Change since 2000
+289%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$2,017
principal + interest $1,709 · taxes & insurance est. $308
Rent: county median rent (ACS)
$1,363
Price-to-rent ratio
18.9
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Census ACS · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $2,017 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,363 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 18.9. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
18.9

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Home values

What homes are worth in 33850

$0$100K$200K$300K$400K200020052010201520202025Peak September 2022 · $323,760Latest · $306,521
Typical home value
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

In January 2000 the typical home in 33850 was worth $85,610.

Values peaked at $323,760 in September 2022. The latest reading is −5.3% from that peak.

As of August 2026: $306,521, −1.4% over twelve months.

Typical home value
$306,521
12-month change
−1.4%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Monthly cost vs. price

Typical home
$306,521
Loan at 20% down
$245,217
30-year fixed rate
7.40%
Monthly principal + interest
$1,698
Median household income, per month
$4,490
Share of income
37.8%
0%30%60%
At today's rate, by home value, 2000–2026: 10.6% → 37.8%
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Census ACS · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Start with the typical home: $306,521. Put 20% down and borrow $245,217 at 7.40%, the 30-year fixed average as of October 8, 2026.

That is $1,698 a month in principal and interest.

The median household here earns $53,877 a year, $4,490 a month. So the payment takes 37.8% of income — rated “severe” (Lotvox ZIP bands: under 28% affordable · 28–36% stretched · 36%+ severe).

The line holds today's rate fixed and moves only the price: at that rate, the same share was 10.6% in 2000.

Payment share of income
37.8%
Monthly P&I
$1,698

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Lotvox lens

The payment, at each month's rate

$0$500$1K$2K$2K2000200520102015202020252.68% rate · $7086.67% rate · $1,577
Monthly P&I at that month's 30-year rate
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Take the typical home's price each month, borrow 80% at that month's actual 30-year average rate: in January 2000 (8.21%) the payment was $513.

In December 2020, with rates at 2.68%, it was $708.

By August 2026, at 6.67%, it was $1,577 — +123% since December 2020, while the home's value moved +40%.

Payment change since 2020
+123%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Home value after inflation

$0$100K$200K$300K$400K200020052010201520202025
Home value (as reported)Prices in general (CPI-U), scaled to January 2000Home value in August 2026 dollars
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · BLS CPI via FRED · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Reported values rose +258% since January 2000.

General prices (CPI-U) rose +97% over the same span.

Divide one by the other: in August 2026 dollars, the 2000 home was worth $168,960. So the real change is +81%, not +258%.

Real change since 2000
+81%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-U), via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08
Deflated with CPI-U (seasonally adjusted, FRED CPIAUCSL) to August 2026; the site's Housing pulse chart uses its own CPI series, so older months can differ slightly.

Home values

33850 against its neighbors

0100200300400200020052010201520202025
33850 (2000 = 100)Polk County (2000 = 100)Florida (2000 = 100)
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

33850: +258% since January 2000.

Polk County: +222% since January 2000.

Florida: +245% since January 2000 — 33850 ran ahead of it by 13 points.

Change since 2000
+258%

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Lotvox lens

Rent or own

Own: payment + 1.2%/yr taxes & insurance
$2,004
principal + interest $1,698 · taxes & insurance est. $306
Rent: typical rent (ZORI)
$1,981
Price-to-rent ratio
12.9
Source: Zillow (ZHVI) · Zillow (ZORI) · Freddie Mac via FRED · LotvoxSource: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

Owning the typical home costs about $2,004 a month once taxes and insurance (estimated at 1.2% of price a year) are added. Renting runs about $1,981 a month.

Price divided by a year's rent: 12.9. Lotvox reads under 15 as favoring buying and 20 or more as favoring renting.

Price-to-rent
12.9

Source: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), Zillow Research; Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Research; Freddie Mac, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), retrieved from FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above)

3 of 4

What's moving

New supply

Homes being permitted

05,00010,00015,000202212,211202312,513202410,38420258,236
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Polk County, builders pulled permits for 8,236 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 82% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
8,236

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Housing pulse

Listings Flow Ladder

per month / homes for sale2024-092026-08balanced 4–6 mo5.2 mo5.2 months of supplyNet +0 / month · inventory growing
New listings / monthHomes for saleClosed sales / monthBasin water level = months of supply
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08-31Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Picture the Listings Flow Ladder as a basin: new listings pour in from the faucet, the homes for sale are the water, and closed sales run out the drain. Coming in — new listings: about 22 a month (Redfin, 3-month rolling data through August 2026).

On the shelf — homes for sale at the end of the period: 112.

Going out — closed sales: about 22 a month. The drain is drawn 36% narrower: the share of homes for sale that sell each month is 64% of its 2015–2019 level.

The ladder: homes for sale ÷ monthly sales = 5.2 months of supply — inside the 4–6 month balanced range. In the basin, that is the water level against the shaded balanced band.

The net reading: about 0 more homes came on than sold each month, so inventory is growing. The basin is filling.

Months of supply
5.2

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08-31

Housing pulse

Sales pace vs. normal

01020304020252026
Homes sold per monthSame months, 2015–2019
Source: Redfin · Lotvox · as of 2026-08Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

Homes sold: about 22 a month in August 2026 (Redfin).

The 2015–2019 level for the same month was 10 — so sales ran at 220% of it, and below it in 0 of the last 24 months.

Sales vs 2015–19 level
220%

Source: Redfin Data Center (market tracker data); Lotvox analysis (calculations on the sources above) · data as of 2026-08

New supply

Homes being permitted

05,00010,00015,000202212,211202312,513202410,38420258,236
1-unit buildings2–4 units5+ units
Source: Census permits · as of 2025Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

Across Polk County, builders pulled permits for 8,236 new homes in 2025.

Of those, 82% were in 1-unit buildings (the Census Bureau's category for detached and attached single homes).

Units permitted 2025
8,236

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey · data as of 2025

4 of 4

Who's holding, who's leaving

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
15,366
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
9,213
Net households
+6,153
Top origins
Orange, FL4,119
Osceola, FL3,499
Hillsborough, FL3,217
Top destinations
Orange, FL2,300
Hillsborough, FL2,055
Osceola, FL1,987
Homes for sale, 2015–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-05-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-05-01

This ZIP sits in Polk County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 15,366 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 9,213 moved out.

Net across those counties: +6,153 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 1 in May 2026.

Most arrivals came from Orange, FL (4,119 households); most departures went to Orange, FL (2,300).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+6,153

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-05-01

Housing pulse

Migration and inventory

Moved in (top-10 origin counties)
15,366
Moved out (top-10 destination counties)
9,213
Net households
+6,153
Top origins
Orange, FL4,119
Osceola, FL3,499
Hillsborough, FL3,217
Top destinations
Orange, FL2,300
Hillsborough, FL2,055
Osceola, FL1,987
Homes for sale, 2012–2026
Source: IRS SOI · Redfin · as of 2026-06-01Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

This ZIP sits in Polk County. IRS tax returns for 2022-2023: among the ten counties sending the most households, 15,366 moved in. Among the ten receiving the most, 9,213 moved out.

Net across those counties: +6,153 households. Beside it, homes for sale in this ZIP: 112 in June 2026.

Most arrivals came from Orange, FL (4,119 households); most departures went to Orange, FL (2,300).

Net households (top-10 flows)
+6,153

Source: IRS Statistics of Income, county-to-county migration data; Redfin Data Center (market tracker data) · data as of 2026-06-01

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