Gerald Mayo · Estes Park Team Realty
Estes Park & the Estes Valley
The most deeply measured small market in America
Updated 6:34 AM MDT · checked every 15 minutes
Since you last looked
Against Oct 24, 2026, these moved the most, ranked by how unusual each move is for that number.
Strong buyer's market: 8.4 months of inventory. Closings are running behind last year: 6 over the past seven days against 10 a year ago.
The valley, today
Rocky Mountain National Park and Lake Estes outlines are for orientation only (US Census Bureau TIGERweb). 80511 has no mapped boundary.
The report covers 5 ZIP codes around Estes Park. The listing feed is checked every 15 minutes; the last successful check was at 6:34 AM MDT.
80517, Estes Park, holds 190 of the 269 homes for sale.
80511 is the Estes Park post-office-box ZIP: it has no mapped boundary and too few listings to report on its own.
Who has the upper hand?
Strong buyer's market. There are 8.4 months of inventory: at the past year's pace of closings, today's 269 homes for sale would take 8.4 months to sell.
A balanced market sits between 4 and 6 months. At 8.4, the Estes Valley is above that band: more homes than buyers.
37 homes are under contract against 269 for sale: 0.14 for every home on the market.
Buyer's lens 269 homes to choose from, and 8.4 months of supply at the current pace.
Seller's lens 37 homes are under contract while 269 wait for a buyer.
Counts every property type the feed carries, land and commercial included. The price-band scene further down counts residential only, so its months differ.
This week, live
6 homes closed over the seven days to Oct 24, 2026, against 10 in the same days a year earlier.
11 new listings came on over the same seven days.
Today in the valley · generated from the feed for Oct 24, 2026. Counts only; no cause is inferred. Not written or reviewed by Gerald.
Closings in the Estes Valley are running behind last year: 6 homes over the past seven days, against 10 in the same week a year ago. On Saturday, October 24, 2026 itself, 0 homes closed and 0 listings came on. 269 listings are active.
The Mayo Report · latest approved Observations · covers Aug 19, 2026
Closings in the Estes Valley are running behind last year: 3 homes over the past seven days, against 7 in the same week a year ago. On Wednesday, August 19, 2026 itself, 1 home closed and 1 listing came on. 277 listings are active.
Edition text is published only after a named person approves it; the figures above refresh with the feed. Read this edition · Past editions
What's on the market?
Guess: how many of the 269 homes for sale ask under $300K?
54, or 20.1% of everything for sale.
Every dot is one home for sale today — all property types, land and commercial included.
Sorted by asking price, the biggest group is $500K–$750K: 62 listings.
Sorted by type, Single Family Residence listings lead with 95. Where the feed gives a parent type but no subtype, the label says so rather than guessing.
Buyer's lens 54 listings ask under $300K, land and condos included.
Seller's lens the median asking price of homes for sale is $599,000.
Moving vs. sitting
Residential homes only, grouped by price. Each bar is that band's months of supply; the marker sits at 6 months.
$1M–$1.5M moves fastest: 5.4 months of supply, 51 closings in the past year against 23 for sale.
$1.5M+ sits longest: 19.0 months of supply, with 15.8% of its listings under contract.
Buyer's lens the $1.5M+ band has 19 homes and 19.0 months of supply.
Seller's lens the $1M–$1.5M band clears fastest, at 5.4 months.
Residential only: land and commercial are excluded here, so these months differ from the all-types figure above.
How sellers are pricing
29.1% cut the price before selling · median cut 6.3%
■ quarter within 46 days · ■ half within 91 · ■ three quarters within 195 (dial = one year)
The median home that sold closed at 97.4% of its final asking price. 8.9% sold over asking, 20.6% at asking and 70.5% under.
29.1% of homes that sold had cut their price first, by a median of 6.3%.
The stopwatch: a quarter sold within 46 days, half within 91, and three quarters within 195.
Buyer's lens 70.5% of homes sold under their final asking price.
Seller's lens half of homes sold within 91 days of listing.
Every closing the feed holds for the region, back to the earliest year it carries.
Where in the valley?
| ZIP | Pricemedian sold price, past 12 months | Speedmedian days to sell | Supplymonths of inventory | Contractunder contract per home for sale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80510 Allenspark | $506K | 107 days | 16.8 mo | 0.10 |
| 80511 Estes Park | — | — | — | — |
| 80515 Drake | $365K | 96 days | 13.4 mo | 0.13 |
| 80517 Estes Park | $650K | 89 days | 7.2 mo | 0.15 |
| 80532 Glen Haven | $510K | 98 days | 14.1 mo | 0.05 |
80510 Allenspark: More homes than buyers · 16.8 months; median sold price $506K over the past year.
80515 Drake: More homes than buyers · 13.4 months; median sold price $365K over the past year.
80517 Estes Park: More homes than buyers · 7.2 months; median sold price $650K over the past year.
80532 Glen Haven: More homes than buyers · 14.1 months; median sold price $510K over the past year.
Price is the median sold price over the past 12 complete months; speed is median days to sell; supply is months of inventory; contract is homes under contract per home for sale.
When to sell
Wedge length = closings in that month, pooled across every year the feed holds. Fastest month: July, 74 days median.
Guess: which month sees the most closings?
August: 1,206 of 10,712 closings the feed holds.
Pooling every year the feed holds, August has the most closings: 1,206 of 10,712.
Homes that close in July sold fastest, a median of 74 days on market.
Seller's lens the most closings happen in August.
Counts and days on market only. A pooled median price by month would mix decades of prices, so it is not shown here; the price history is in the long view below.
1992 to today
Log scale: equal distances are equal percentage changes. 1992 = 100. Dashed years are provisional.
Set 1992 = 100. By 2025 the index reached 1,071: up 971%.
It peaked in 2006, fell 8.0% to a low in 2010, then rose 150% through 2025.
2025 itself: down 2.4% on the year. Later years are dashed: the county is still recording them.
Bailey-Muth-Nourse repeat-sales regression, unweighted. Series begins 1992: Larimer recording coverage steps up sharply that year (Estes priced deeds 1991=176, 1992=593), so earlier years are not comparable. Renovations are not removed, so improvement between two sales counts as appreciation.
The last few years
The median recorded sale was $412,690 in 2020 Q1, rose to $745,000 in 2022 Q4, and was $650,000 in 2025 Q3.
The newest quarters are dashed and marked still filling in: county recording lags, so they are incomplete.
Rewind the valley
Drag the slider back to January 2016 and every number rewinds together, then plays forward to September 2026.
Median sold price, three months to January 2016: $318,293. Three months to September 2026: $605,000.
Each month shows the three months ending then, so a single thin month cannot swing it. The feed does not keep a history of how many homes were for sale on a past date, so inventory is not part of the rewind.
Who owns the valley?
State positions are approximate, for direction only. Trust and company shares are separate and are not added.
Guess: what share of these parcels are owned from out of state?
25.0%: 2,383 of 9,539 parcels with an owner state on file.
25.0% of parcels are owned from out of state (2,383 of 9,539). Texas 595, Nebraska 258, Kansas 175 lead.
49.6% of owners have their tax mail sent somewhere other than the parcel. 16.0% are held in a trust and 15.3% by an LLC or company; the two are counted separately and never added.
Only 2.5% of parcels changed hands in 2025: this market is held more than traded.
4 of 5 region ZIPs; Allenspark (80510) is Boulder County and is not in the Larimer record. Counts are of parcels, not households.
How long people stay
51% of owners are still here ten years after they buy.
A quarter move on by 4.4 years, half by 10.3, three quarters by 23.8.
Counting only owners who already sold would put the median at 5.6 years instead of 10.3: 7,591 of 18,357 holds are still running, and they are the long ones.
Kaplan-Meier. Holds still running are right-censored at today rather than dropped, so an owner who has held 20 years and has not sold still counts.
How Estes compares
| Market | Typical value | Value rank | 10-yr growth | Growth rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspen, CO | $3.47M | 1 | +109% | 8 |
| Park City, UT | $2.2M | 2 | +148% | 3 |
| Telluride, CO | $2.18M | 3 | +157% | 2 |
| Jackson, WY | $1.96M | 4 | +141% | 5 |
| Vail, CO | $1.89M | 5 | +106% | 10 |
| Ketchum, ID | $1.56M | 6 | +173% | 1 |
| Incline Village, NV | $1.49M | 7 | +107% | 9 |
| Avon, CO | $1.26M | 8 | +110% | 7 |
| Breckenridge, CO | $1.2M | 9 | +87% | 13 |
| Stowe, VT | $1.05M | 10 | +112% | 6 |
| Frisco, CO | $978K | 11 | +96% | 12 |
| Whitefish, MT | $888K | 12 | +147% | 4 |
| Keystone, CO | $835K | 13 | +100% | 11 |
| Estes Park, CO | $697K | 14 | +82% | 14 |
| South Lake Tahoe, CA | $676K | 15 | +66% | 15 |
| Taos, NM | $445K | 16 | +30% | 17 |
| Lake Placid, NY | $422K | 17 | +31% | 16 |
The typical Estes Park home value is $697,128, 14th of 17 in a hand-picked set of mountain-resort markets.
That is 42% below the group's median, with 3 markets cheaper still.
Re-ranked by ten-year growth, Estes Park rose 82% since Jun 30, 2016: 14th of 17.
An editorial peer set of US mountain-resort markets — towns whose housing market is dominated by a destination resort economy, chosen by hand across nine states. It is not derived from the data: this database holds no elevation or resort attribute, and a behavioural definition was tested and rejected.
Your ZIP, your call
80510
Boulder County
More homes than buyers · 16.8 months
Too few months with 3+ sales to chart.
80511
Larimer County
Too few listings to report
Too few months with 3+ sales to chart.
80515
Larimer County
More homes than buyers · 13.4 months
Median sold price by month, 2024-11 to 2026-10; gaps are months with under 3 sales.
80517
Larimer County
More homes than buyers · 7.2 months
Median sold price by month, 2024-11 to 2026-10; gaps are months with under 3 sales.
80532
Larimer County
More homes than buyers · 14.1 months
Too few months with 3+ sales to chart.
Data courtesy of IRES as distributed by MLS Grid as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:34 AM MDT
Say it back
Generated from today's story. Figures from the listing feed are shown here on lotvox.com/mayo only.
Estes Valley Real Estate
Estes Park Team Realty · (970) 586-3838
(970) 215-5757[email protected]estesparkteamrealty.comFull data view · Get the weekly Observations · Past editions
Market pages (no MLS figures): 80510 · 80515 · 80517 · 80532 · Larimer County · Fort Collins Metro report