hot · seller advantage · prices rising year-over-year.
Verdict grades housing conditions; buyer-timing, investor cash-flow, supply-tightness and county macro scores answer different questions — each in its own section.
Buyer / sellerbuyer-timing lens
Balanced Market
Needs 20.4% correction for affordability
Score Components
Payment Burden (25%)75
Valuation Gap (25%)100
Supply & Demand (20%)20
Cancellation Rate (10%)0
Days on Market (5%)40
Balanced market in 81523. List price is roughly fair — focus on condition and value. Payment burden: 37.2% of median income. A 6% price correction needed to reach 30% affordability threshold. Median days on market: 38. Market appears 45% overpriced vs. assessed values.
Balanced market conditions. Prices roughly aligned with fundamentals — similar to stable periods in 2014-2015.
HOTSELLER ADVANTAGE
Market is running hot with fast-moving inventory. Sellers are firmly in control. Prices up 4.0% YoY.
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A single median rises whenever expensive homes become a bigger share of what sells, even if no tier got more expensive. These are the tiers underneath it, computed from recorded arms-length deed transactions in Mesa.
Aggregate median +2.1% YoY in Mesa, CO (county), but the under-$500k tier is -3.0% — the rise is mix shift, not appreciation. Over the same year the under-$500k share of sales moved from 73.9% to 70.0% (-3.9pp) and the $1M+ share from 4.8% to 6.1% (+1.3pp).
Current tiers · 12 months to Aug 25floor 10 sales/tier
7 tiers had too few sales in this ZIP and are shown at county or metro level — see the stamp on each row.
Tier
Median
$/sqft
Sales
Share
Source
Under $250k
$150k
—
280
21.9%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$250k–$500k
$360k
—
613
48.0%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$500k–$750k
$585k
—
231
18.1%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$750k–$1M
$828k
—
74
5.8%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$1M–$1.5M
$1.20M
—
45
3.5%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$1.5M–$2M
$1.75M
—
13
1.0%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
$2M+
$4.92M
—
20
1.6%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
All sales (the headline median)
$385k
—
1,276
100%
COUNTY · Mesa, CO
ZIP-level history was too thin to draw the tiers; served at county level (Mesa, CO), by quarter.
Share of sales by tier (quarterly)
If the upper tiers widen over time, the headline median rises on composition alone.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
Median within each tier, against the headline median (quarterly)
The blue line is the single number NAR-style reporting quotes. The gold lines are what each tier actually did. Log scale — the tiers span an order of magnitude, and on a log axis equal slopes mean equal percentage moves, which is the comparison being made.
Under $250k
$250k–$500k
$500k–$750k
$750k–$1M
$1M–$1.5M
$1.5M–$2M
$2M+
All sales (headline)
National context — not local
NAR's aggregate existing-home median for the United States and the West census region. This is the figure the tiers above are a check on. It is national/regional and says nothing about 81523.
United States
West
Copyright, National Association of Realtors. Reprinted with permission. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED publishes a rolling 13-month window for these series.
Tiers computed from Lotvox parcel and deed substrate through Aug 25 (10 later months withheld as partially loaded). Sample floor 10 sales per tier; below it a figure is drawn from the county or metro and labelled, or left blank. Multi-parcel bulk deeds and duplicate records are excluded.
Mesa County contextmacro · jobs · debt · migration
ZIP score grades housing; county score adds macro distress (jobs, debt, poverty). They answer different questions.
Mesa County
County-level context for ZIP 81523
Verified — Mesa County
Moderate (33)
ZIP 81523→Mesa County, COPop: 161,196
12-Month Direction
+8Stable
Confidence
100%
DeterioratingStableImproving
Why this score
BuildersLens Market Intelligence
Market Score
33· Distressed
Market Score grades housing-market conditions (affordability, valuation, supply). The county Healthy/Moderate/Distressed badge measures economic distress (jobs, debt, poverty) — the two can read differently.